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Sunday, July 25, 2010
I was very surprised when I heard that there were 3.6 million Hikikmori people in Japan, because I had never heard such an awful figure. The figure "3.6 million" spreads across the Internet.

But what's the source of the information? How was the Hikikmori population estimated?

I searched "Hikiokomori 3.6 million" in Japanese on Google (web search), Google books (books search) and Google scholar (scholarly literature search). There was no information on Google books and Google scholar about the estimate. But I found many rumors about the estimate on Google. All rumors are circulated in 2010.

Searching more, I found that the source seems to be a remark by Kazuhiro Haraguchi, Minister of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications on February 5, 2010 in the Suicide Conference. Asahi Shimbun online edition reported his remark on February 5, 2010. On the same day, Haraguchi commented on press conference in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications that "There are 3.6 million Hikikomori people according to a research by a NPO. Although the Government doesn't confirm the figure, it reports the average age is 32."

Haraguchi seemed to mention the figure based on a research by a NPO. But I don't know which NPO conducted the research. I think the largest NPO about Hikikomori is Hikikomori KHJ Parents Association, the only nationwide NPO about Hikikomori and a lobby group. But I haven't heard the association went the research public. Maybe other NPO went the estimate public, but I don't know which NPO was.

After all, I'm not able to find the evidence of 3.6 million Hikikomori people.

* * * * * * * * * *

On the other hand, according to the Guideline for Assessment and Support for Hikikomori People, the most trusted estimate of Hikikomori population is at least 255,510 households. This estimate was conducted as part of the World Mental Health Survey Japan.

* Epidemiological survey on mental health: international comparison *
http://jglobal.jst.go.jp/public/20090422/200902201798722988
(The link to the J-GLOBAL, a Japanese website devoted to provide information on research and development)

And according to the media on July 23 2010, a research by the Cabinet Office estimates there are 0.7 million Hikikomori people. But I don't know the details of the estimate.

After all, how many Hikikomori people are there in Japan? Many kinds of estimates confuse me.